Confession: I’d forgotten he played for Detroit. He came back with a 173, which was really his last hurrah until an average season at 31 with the Pistons. He still produced a 154 PPA in this, his age 26 season.
BRADLEY BEAL STATS FULL
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks, 2012-13 - This was Anthony’s first full season in New York, and with a 162 PPA, it was the best of his career to that point.The Wizards are hoping Beal makes a similar leap at 28. At age 26, he stepped up from a 150s PPA to 172.
But, he was also part of those Isiah Thomas, et al. The following season, he was average for the Mavericks and got traded to the Pistons for Adrian Dantley where he continued to be about average. This was really his last good season - a 151 PPA at age 28. Mark Aguirre, Dallas Mavericks, 1987-88 - At his best, he was a very good small forward for Dallas.He finished out with seasons of 33 (just 6 games in his return), 80 and 62. After that: 137, 159.and the torn Achilles. PPA 186, which fell to 149 at 31 before bouncing back to 170 at age 32. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers, 2008-09 - This was Bryant’s age 30 season, and while it wasn’t quite a “last gasp,” it was close.McGrady topped out at a different stratosphere - a 235 at age 23 in Orlando. Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets, 2006-07 - This was McGrady’s second to last really good season - 173 PPA.Unlike Beal, his teams were usually a little better when he sat. DeMar Derozan, Toronto Raptors, 2016-17 - Good scorer, good player, iffy defense.All that’s rolled up into a single score that (in theory) provides a list of NBA players since 1977-78 with similar production at a similar age. Reminder: The Statistical Doppelgänger Machine works by comparing a player’s performance across 14 different categories that include age, playing time, pace-neutral box score stats and scores from my PPA metric. Sure, he could sign the supermax extension and then demand a trade, but wherever he goes, he’ll be the second (or third) guy - not the undisputed franchise leader.Īnyway, Beal’s comps (see below) are largely unsurprising - mostly outstanding scorers who played questionable defense and were probably a bit overrated. My personal belief is that he’ll never ask out of DC because there’s nowhere else he can get the supermax deal AND be the face of the franchise. Still, he’s very good, he’s a prolific and entertaining scorer, and he’s The Guy in Washington. The Wizards seem to believe he’s the kind of elite player to build around, which I don’t agree with. My analysis had him squeaking into the sixth and final All-NBA guard slot last season, which the voters ultimately confirmed.
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